Vikings Playoff Chances Week 18: Tracking the Vikings Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Blake Weishaar

Key Takeaways:

  • πŸ“‰ The Vikings playoff chances are 4.3%, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • πŸ“‰ The Vikings playoff chances have dropped almost 60% since Week 15.
  • πŸ“‰ Out of six NFC teams with DraftKings odds listed, the Vikings' chances rank last.
Vikings Playoff Chances

Just a few weeks ago, the Vikings looked like they had all but clinched a playoff spot and cemented themselves the Cinderella story of the NFL. Now, they are just barely alive in the playoff hunt, and they'd need a ton of help to get in.

Although Minnesota sportsbooks aren't legal yet, I'll keep you updated in this article on the latest Vikings playoff picture outlook throughout the NFL season.

What are the Vikings Playoff Chances?

The Vikings playoff chances are 4.3%, according to DraftKings Minnesota

Below I've compiled a table showing Minnesota's playoff chances compared to their Super Bowl chances, NFC championship chances and division title chances:

⬇️ Vikings Playoff Chances4.3% Chance
⬆️ Vikings Miss Playoffs95.7% Chance
⬇️ Vikings Win Super Bowl0.1% Chance
⬇️ Vikings Win NFC0.2% Chance
🚫 Vikings Win NFC NorthN/A
⬇️ NYT Playoff Simulator3% Chance
⬇️ ESPN FPI2.7% Chance
βœ… Last Verified:July 3, 2024

The Vikings playoff picture is calculated using the implied probability of the team’s odds to make the postseason. The Vikings can no longer win the NFC North title this year, as the Lions clinched it against them in Week 16.

The New York Times Postseason Simulator tracks every eligible NFL team's playoff chances. ESPN's Football Power Index projects each NFL team's playoff chances, as well as their efficiency. 

πŸ† MORE: Vikings Super Bowl Odds

Do the Vikings Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Vikings have a chance to make the playoffs in 2023, but their chances are steadily dropping. They dropped four of their first five games, then won five in a row, and have now gone 1-5 in their final six games of the season. It's been nothing short of a roller coaster for the Minnesota Vikings in 2023.

Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances Week-by-Week

The Vikings currently have a 4.3% chance (via their +2200 odds on DraftKings) to make the playoffs in 2023. 

⭐️ Week 146.5% Chance
⭐️ Week 233.9% Chance
⭐️ Week 327.8% Chance
⭐️ Week 423.8% Chance
⭐️ Week 528.6% Chance
⭐️ Week 618.2% Chance
⭐️ Week 723.8% Chance
⭐️ Week 837.7% Chance
⭐️ Week 927.8% Chance
⭐️ Week 1044.4% Chance
⭐️ Week 1166.7% Chance
⭐️ Week 1268.3% Chance
⭐️ Week 1354.5% Chance
⭐️ Week 1445.5% Chance
⭐️ Week 1563.8% Chance (FanDuel)
⭐️ Week 1650% Chance
⭐️ Week 1722.2% Chance
⭐️ Week 184.3% Chance
βœ… Last Verified:July 3, 2024

Minnesota entered the season with +115 odds (46.5% implied probability) to make the playoffs. Since then, the Vikings playoff chances reflect a roller-coaster season for Minnesota.

Vikings Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates July 2024

The 2023 season has been a roller coaster thus far. Looking at the tumultuous year the Vikings have had, it's easy to see why they're a playoff bubble team:

  • πŸ“… Jan. 3, 2024: The Vikings will go back to QB Nick Mullens as their starter in Week 18.
  • πŸ“… Dec. 28, 2023: Rookie Jaren Hall will start vs. the Packers, marking the fourth QB change for the Vikings this season.
  • πŸ“… Dec. 26, 2023: TE T.J. Hockenson will miss the rest of the 2023 season with a torn ACL and MCL.
  • πŸ“… Dec. 23, 2023: LB Jordan Hicks is activated after being hospitalized for a shin contusion.
  • πŸ“… Dec. 12, 2023: The Vikings announce QB Nick Mullens will be the starter for Week 15. Josh Dobbs to moved to third-string QB.
  • πŸ“… Dec. 10, 2023: WR Justin Jefferson returns from injured reserve.
  • πŸ“… Nov. 13, 2023: The Vikings re-sign LB Anthony Barr, who spent 8 seasons in Minnesota.
  • πŸ“… Nov. 5, 2023: RB Cam Akers tears his Achilles and is out for the rest of the season.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 31, 2023: The Vikings trade for Cardinals QB Josh Dobbs, who started all 8 games for Arizona to start the season.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 29, 2023: QB Kirk Cousins tears his Achilles and is out for the rest of the season.
  • πŸ“… Sept. 20, 2023: The Vikings trade for Rams RB Cam Akers.
  • πŸ“… Sept. 9, 2023: The Vikings and WR Justin Jefferson table contract talks until after the season.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 31, 2023: TE T.J. Hockenson signs a four-year, $66M contract extension.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 2, 2023: Head coach Kevin O'Connell's cover percentage against the spread in 2022-23 comes in at 41.2%.
  • πŸ“† July 31, 2023: The Vikings sign DE Danielle Hunter to new contract.
  • πŸ“† July 11, 2023: Just 3% of Vikes fans consider themselves sports bettors.
  • πŸ“† June 20, 2023: U.S. Bank Stadium is ranked one of the best NFL stadiums for betting the over.
  • πŸ“† June 9, 2023: The Vikings release starting RB Dalvin Cook.
  • πŸ“† May 16, 2023: The Vikings trade Za'Darius Smith to the Browns in exchange for 2024 and 2025 draft picks.
  • πŸ“† May 12, 2023: Weeks 6-8 are ranked as the Vikings' toughest stretch of the season.
  • πŸ“† April 2023: The Vikings draft USC WR Jordan Addison with the No. 23 overall pick in the draft and pick up WR Justin Jefferson's fifth-year option.
  • πŸ“† March 2023: The Vikings release WR Adam Thielen and LB Eric Kendricks, while re-signing safety Harrison Smith, RB Alexander Mattison and center Garrett Bradbury.

I will continue to update this page all season, so be sure to bookmark it and return to see all of the latest updates regarding the Minnesota Vikings.

Minnesota Vikings Schedule and Betting Lines

Below are the results and latest available game lines* for the Vikings in 2023:

πŸ“… Week 1❌ TB 20, MIN 17
πŸ“… Week 2❌ PHI 34, MIN 28
πŸ“… Week 3❌ LAC 28, MIN 24
πŸ“… Week 4βœ… MIN 21, CAR 13
πŸ“… Week 5❌ KC 27, MIN 20
πŸ“… Week 6βœ… MIN 19, CHI 13
πŸ“… Week 7βœ… SF 17, MIN 22
πŸ“… Week 8βœ… MIN 24, GB 10
πŸ“… Week 9βœ… ATL 28, GB 31
πŸ“… Week 10βœ… NO 19, MIN 27
πŸ“… Week 11❌ MIN 20, DEN 21
πŸ“… Week 12❌ CHI 12, MIN 10
πŸ“… Week 13: BYE🏈 N/A
πŸ“… Week 14βœ… LV 0, MIN 3
πŸ“… Week 15❌ CIN 27, MIN 24 (OT)
πŸ“… Week 16❌ DET 30, MIN 24
πŸ“… Week 17 vs. GB❌ GB 33, MIN 10
πŸ“… Week 18 @ DET🏈 MIN +3.5, ML +150
βœ… Last Verified: July 3, 2024

*Note: Minnesota sportsbook promos could eventually increase payouts with an odds boost or profit boost on future Vikings games.

Key Contributors Toward Vikings Playoff Chances

If the Vikings playoff chances have been defined by anything this season, it would be injuries, turnovers, and missed opportunities. 

Rookie QB Jaren Hall came out flat in a must-win Sunday night game vs. the Packers, throwing 5 for 10 and an interception. Head coach Kevin O'Connell benched him for Nick Mullens, who performed admirably but couldn't right the ship. 

It was just one in a string of disappointing QB developments for the Vikings this season. Josh Dobbs, who looked like the MVP after the Vikings traded for him was benched after throwing five total interceptions in back-to-back losses and failing to get a touchdown in the lowest-scoring game of the year. Mullens took over for Dobbs, but he also had turnover issues, throwing a combined six interceptions in two starts. Kirk Cousins, out for the year with a torn Achilles, threw for over 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns in the first eight games of the season.

The Vikings' injury woesspread to the tight end room, with T.J. Hockenson out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL and MCL. Hockenson was leading the team in receiving yards, accounting for over 23% of the team's total for the season. 

Rookie standout Jordan Addison and reigning Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson (when not injured himself) have been bright spots this season, but it hasn't been enough to lift the Vikings as they struggled.

πŸ”₯ MORE: BetMGM Minnesota Bonus Codes

Where Can I Bet on the Vikings to Make the Playoffs?

You can bet on the Vikings to make the playoffs at most major Minnesota sportsbook apps, including BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel and DraftKings. Bettors must be at least 21 years old and within a state with legal sports betting.

Unfortunately, Minnesota sports betting is not yet legalized. Locals would need to travel to a nearby state like Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa or Illinois to place a legal bet on the Vikings to make the playoffs. 

Looking Ahead: Vikings Playoff Picture

The Vikings playoff picture is getting smaller and smaller. Their loss to the NFC North champion Lions in Week 16 did nothing to help their playoff chances. The Vikings went from the presumptive No. 6 seed in the NFC to No. 10 in just a few weeks.

At this point, the Vikings no longer control their own postseason destiny. The Vikings can only make the playoffs if they win and the following teams lose:

  1. Saints (vs. Falcons)
  2. Packers (vs. Bears)
  3. Seahawks (vs. Cardinals)

Are the Vikings Out of Playoff Picture?

No, the Vikings are not yet out of playoff contention.

Vikings Playoff Picture vs. NFC North

The Vikings rank behind the Packers in the NFC playoff picture. The Packers have a 65.5% chance to make the playoffs, while the Vikings sit at 4.3%. The Bears have been eliminated from the playoff picture.

The Lions, on the other hand, clinched the NFC North division against the Vikings on Christmas Eve. This is the first time they've won their division since 1993.

πŸ”₯ MORE: FanDuel Minnesota Promo Codes

Vikings Playoff Picture vs. NFC Standings

The Vikings are up against some stiff competition among NFC bubble teams. They are the 10th-ranked team in the NFC at 7-9. If the season ended today, they would not make the playoffs by virtue of their record.

Of the six NFC teams with odds still listed at DraftKings, the Vikings rank last, which doesn't bode well for their playoff chances. They have less than a 1% chance to win the conference.

Where Do the Vikings Rank in the NFC Wild Card Playoff Picture?

Sportsbooks are generally not listing Vikings wild-card odds anymore. The New York Times playoff simulator lists the Vikings wild-card chances at 3% heading into Week 17.

Can the Vikings Get the No. 1 Seed in NFC Playoff Picture?

No, the Vikings cannot get the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff picture. The 49ers currently hold the No. 1 seed with an 11-4 record, which the Vikings cannot catch at this point in the season.

Vikings Playoff Picture Outlook & Predictions

The Vikings lost their virtual playoff elimination game vs. the Packers. That pretty much tells you everything you need to know about the Vikings in 2023.

Unless the Packers, Seahawks, and Saints all loseβ€”which seems very unlikelyβ€”the Vikings will miss the postseason, only one season removed from winning the division title.

Who to Root for if You're a Minnesota Vikings Fan

This week, Vikings fans need to be rooting for the Falcons, Bears and Cardinals just as hard as they're rooting for the Vikings themselves. Without all four of those victories, the Vikings will not make the playoffs.

πŸ”₯ MORE: Caesars Sportsbook Minnesota Promo Codes

Minnesota Vikings Odds FAQs

Author

Shannon Lane

Shannon Lane is a commercial editor and fact-checker for MinnesotaBets.com. She's spent the last decade working in sports media, including at NFL Media in digital content programming and strategy, and as a reporter and fact-checker at Sports Illustrated. She covers everything NFL football to give Minnesota sports betters the best information on the Vikings and other NFL teams.