Vikings Playoff Chances June 2023: Tracking the Vikings Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Shannon Lane
Justin Jefferson Celebrates

Key Takeaways:

  • The Vikings playoff chances are 50% following free agency and the NFL Draft.
  • The Vikings have a 28.6% chance to win the NFC North, which ranks them second in the division behind the Lions.
  • Minnesota has a 2.8% chance to win Super Bowl LVIII in 2024.

The Minnesota Vikings won the NFC North last season, but lost in the first round of the NFL playoffs. The Vikings have a rising young head coach in Kevin O'Connell and some of the best offensive players in the league, but quarterback Kirk Cousins has struggled to lead them deep into the postseason. Although Minnesota sportsbooks aren't legal yet, I'll keep you updated on the latest Vikings playoff chances and Vikings playoff picture outlook.

What are the Vikings Playoff Chances?

The Vikings playoff chances are 50%, per DraftKings Sportsbook Minnesota, making them the definition of a toss-up team at this point in the offseason. That implied probability puts them behind only the Lions within the NFC North division. Below I've compiled a table of the latest on the Vikings playoff picture:

πŸ’ͺ Vikings Playoff Chances50% Chance
❌ Vikings Miss Playoffs50% Chance
πŸ† Vikings Win Super Bowl2.8% Chance
πŸ‘‘ Vikings Win NFC6.7% Chance
πŸ”₯ Vikings Win NFC North28.6% Chance
πŸ—½ New York Times Postseason Simulator for Vikings Not Available Yet
🏈 Vikings ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)0.5 FPI
βœ… Data Last Verified by ExpertJune 8, 2023

The Vikings' playoff picture is calculated using the implied probability of the team's odds to make the postseason. Converting the Vikings' current odds of +100 to make the playoffs provides the 50% chance highlighted above. That leaves a 50% chance for the Vikings to miss the playoffs. 

The Vikings chances of winning the Super Bowl are sitting at just 2.8%. The Vikings have a 6.7% chance to win the conference and a 28.6% chance to win the division.

The New York Times Postseason Simulator tracks every eligible NFL team's playoff chances, but is not yet available for the 2023 season. ESPN's Football Power Index predicts each NFL team's efficiency and future team strength. 

*NOTE: Odds will vary across different Minnesota betting apps, such as Caesars, FanDuel, and more. You may be find better Vikings Super Bowl odds or better Vikings playoff chances if you visit other online sportsbooks or betting apps.

Vikings Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates June 2023

In an offseason with many questions, the Vikings have already made some notable moves, parting ways with two-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Adam Thielen, leading tackler Eric Kendricks, and former Pro Bowl D-lineman Za’Darius Smith. With trade speculation – at least moderate speculation – surrounding Cousins and RB Dalvin Cook, this could be an interesting offseason for Minnesota. 

  • πŸ“† May 12: The Vikings trade Za'Darius Smith to the Browns in exchange for 2024 and 2025 draft picks.
  • πŸ“† April 29: LSU safety Jay Ward, LSU NT Jaquelin Roy, BYU QB Jaren Hall and UAB RB DeWayne McBride are drafted on Day 3.
  • πŸ“† April 28: USC CB Mekhi Blackmon is drafted on Day 2.
  • πŸ“† April 27: The Vikings draft USC WR Jordan Addison with the No. 23 overall pick in the draft.
  • πŸ“† April 25: The Vikings pick up WR Justin Jefferson's fifth-year option.
  • πŸ“† April 17: The Vikings agree to terms with CB Joejuan Williams.
  • πŸ“† March 28: TE Irv Smith, Jr. leaves the team in free agency for the Bengals.
  • πŸ“† March 24: The Vikings sign Pro Bowl FB C.J. Ham to a two-year contract extension
  • πŸ“† March 17: The Vikings agree to terms with former longtime Packer DL Dean Lowry.
  • πŸ“† March 16: Safety Harrison Smith and RB Alexander Mattison return to the team on free agency deals.
  • πŸ“† March 15: CB Byron Murphy joins the Vikings defense in free agency on a two-year, $17.5M deal.
  • πŸ“† March 14: Former Saints edge rusher Marcus Davenport and the Vikings reach a one-year deal. Kirk Cousins restructures his deal to free up $16M in cap space as the Vikings re-sign center Garrett Bradbury.
  • πŸ“† March 13: CB Patrick Peterson and DT Dalvin Tomlinson both leave the team in free agency.
  • πŸ“† March 10: The Vikings released wide receiver Adam Thielen, one of their top receivers over the last decade.
  • πŸ“† March 9: Vikings Pro Bowl linebacker Za’Darius Smith requests to be released.
  • πŸ“† March 6: Minnesota releases longtime linebacker Eric Kendricks, a staple of their defense over the last several years.

Check back regularly. As major moves are made over the offseason, the Vikings playoff chances could shift – for better or worse.

Where Can I Bet on the Vikings to Make the Playoffs?

You can bet on the Vikings to make the playoffs at most major sportsbooks in the U.S. but bettors must be at least 21 years old and within a state with legal sports betting. Unfortunately, Minnesota does not currently offer legal sports betting. Locals would need to travel to a neighboring state like Michigan or on Oneida property in Wisconsin to place a legal bet on the Vikings to make the playoffs. 

Looking Ahead: Vikings Playoff Picture

The Minnesota Vikings have some big decisions to make this offseason, particularly regarding their key players in the backfield such as Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook. If Minnesota can keep those pieces intact, it should once again be a strong contender to make the playoffs, especially as they return 2022 AP Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson.

The Vikings have parted ways with two-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Adam Thielen. Defensively, Minnesota released Eric Kendricks, last season’s leading tackler, and traded away Za'Darius Smith. Marcus Davenport now leads the team on the D-line. 

In the NFC North, the emerging Lions are considered the favorite to win the division. As of now, Dan Campbell’s crew may pose the biggest challenge to Minnesota to repeat as NFC North champs. The Chicago Bears are coming off of a dismal season while the Green Bay Packers are beginning their first season in nearly two decades without QB Aaron Rodgers.

Do the Vikings Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Vikings have a chance to make the playoffs. When a team wins 13 games one season, there’s a very good chance that it will be a contender the next. The Vikings certainly qualify as a playoff contender and with Aaron Rodgers leaving the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota is better position to repeat as division winners.

Despite the criticisms surrounding Kirk Cousins, the Michigan State alum is coming off a season in which he threw 29 touchdowns and led eight game-winning drives. Although there have been trade rumors surrounding running back Dalvin Cook, he and wide receiver Justin Jefferson are two of the best in the NFL at their positions.

For Minnesota to take the next step, it will need to improve on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, only the division rival Detroit Lions allowed more yards per game. Only the Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Bears allowed more points. The Vikings revamped their defensive secondary through free agency and the NFL Draft this offseason, replacing Patrick Peterson with former Cardinals CB Byron Murphy, and using two of their six draft picks at DB positions.

Are the Vikings Out of Playoffs?

No, the Vikings are not out of the playoffs. At this point in the offseason, no team is currently out of the NFL playoffs. Despite some recent offseason developments for Minnesota, the Vikings remain strong playoff contenders and rank second in the NFC North.

The Vikings have won at least seven games in each of the last nine seasons and have made the playoffs four times over that stretch. Minnesota, however, hasn’t made consecutive playoff appearances since 2008 and 2009. 

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Mike Ferguson is a football betting analyst for Mike spends his days browsing the latest lines for all the top football betting markets to find storylines curated specifically for sports bettors in Minnesota. From time to time Mike will also turn his attention to NBA, MLB, or NHL betting lines that Minnesota sports bettors might be interested in but football odds are Mike's expertise.

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