Vikings Playoff Chances Week 14: Tracking the Vikings Playoff Picture

Fact Checked by Shannon Lane

Key Takeaways:

  • ⭐️ The Vikings playoff chances are 45.5%.
  • πŸ“ˆ Minnesota's playoff chances have bounced back after QB Josh Dobbs' overall strong play.
  • πŸ”₯ The Vikings have a 9.1% chance to win the NFC North, which ranks second in the division.
Vikings Playoff Chances

The Minnesota Vikings went 13-4 and won the NFC North title in 2023 in their first year under Kevin O'Connell. The 2023 season has been a roller coaster thus far.

Kirk Cousins was playing some of the best football of his Vikings career, and after starting the season 1-4, Minnesota had won three straight games. However, in a 24-10 Week 8 win over the Green Bay Packers, Cousins tore his Achilles and is now out for the season.

Minnesota traded for Josh Dobbs at the trade deadline, and Dobbs has played well for the most part, leading the Vikings to two more victories, before suffering two straight defeats.

Although Minnesota sportsbooks aren't legal yet, I'll keep you updated in this article on the latest Vikings playoff picture outlook throughout the NFL season.

What are the Vikings Playoff Chances?

The Vikings playoff chances are 54.5%, according to DraftKings Minnesota

Below I've compiled a table showing Minnesota's playoff chances compared to their Super Bowl chances, NFC championship chances and division title chances:

⬇️ Vikings Playoff Chances45.5% Chance
⬆️ Vikings Miss Playoffs54.5% Chance
⏸️ Vikings Win Super Bowl0.8% Chance
⬆️ Vikings Win NFC2% Chance
⬇️ Vikings Win NFC North9.1% Chance
⬇️ NYT Playoff Simulator44% Chance
⬇️ ESPN FPI49.6% Chance
βœ… Last Verified:December 7, 2023

The Vikings playoff picture is calculated using the implied probability of the team’s odds to make the postseason. For this particular chart's data, I used DraftKings Sportsbook. Converting the Vikings' current odds of +120 to make the playoffs provided the 45.5% chance highlighted above. 

The Vikings are projected to finish second in the NFC North, with a 9.1% chance to win the division. The Vikings have a 2% chance to win the NFC and just a 0.8% chance to win Super Bowl LVIII in 2024. You can read more about the Vikings Super Bowl odds here.

The New York Times Postseason Simulator tracks every eligible NFL team's playoff chances. ESPN's Football Power Index projects each NFL team's playoff chances, as well as their efficiency. 

Do the Vikings Have a Chance to Make the Playoff Picture?

Yes, the Vikings have a chance to make the playoffs in 2023. They have climbed out of an early-season hole but are now 6-6.

With a 45.5% implied probability, the Vikings currently have the sixth-best chances in the NFC to make the playoffs. Given that only seven teams make the postseason in each conference, oddsmakers predict the Vikings will just make the playoffs at this point in 2023.

Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances Week-by-Week

The Vikings currently have a 54.5% chance (via their -120 odds on DraftKings) to make the playoffs in 2023. Their Week 10 win marked the first time the Vikings were favored to make the playoffs all season.

⭐️ Week 146.5% Chance
⭐️ Week 233.9% Chance
⭐️ Week 327.8% Chance
⭐️ Week 423.8% Chance
⭐️ Week 528.6% Chance
⭐️ Week 618.2% Chance
⭐️ Week 723.8% Chance
⭐️ Week 837.7% Chance
⭐️ Week 927.8% Chance
⭐️ Week 1044.4% Chance
⭐️ Week 1166.7% Chance
⭐️ Week 1268.3% Chance
⭐️ Week 1354.5% Chance
⭐️ Week 1445.5% Chance
βœ… Last Verified:December 7, 2023

Minnesota entered the season with +115 odds (46.5% implied probability) to make the playoffs. Since then, the Vikings playoff chances reflect a roller-coaster season for Minnesota.

Vikings Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates December 2023

The Vikings parted ways with many veteran players this offseason; they have certainly been missed in the 5-4 start to the season. Although Kirk Cousins' injury puts a damper on Minnesota's ceiling, it's easy to be excited about 5 straight wins.

  • πŸ“… Nov. 28: The Vikings activate WR Justin Jefferson from injured reserve. All signs point to him returning in Week 14.
  • πŸ“… Nov. 13: The Vikings sign LB Anthony Barr, who spent 8 seasons in Minnesota, in the wake of Jordan Hicks' leg injury.
  • πŸ“… Nov. 5: RB Cam Akers tears his Achilles and is out for the rest of the season.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 31: The Vikings trade for Cardinals QB Josh Dobbs, who started all 8 games for Arizona to start the season.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 29: QB Kirk Cousins tears his Achilles and is out for the rest of the season.
  • πŸ“… Oct. 18: Pass rusher Marcus Davenport is placed on IR, meaning he'll miss at least 4 games.
  • πŸ“… Sept. 20: The Vikings trade for Rams RB Cam Akers.
  • πŸ“… Sept. 9: The Vikings and WR Justin Jefferson table contract talks until after the season.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 31: TE T.J. Hockenson signs a four-year, $66M contract extension.
  • πŸ“… Aug. 2: Head coach Kevin O'Connell's cover percentage against the spread in 2022-23 comes in at 41.2%.
  • πŸ“† July 31: The Vikings sign DE Danielle Hunter to new contract.
  • πŸ“† July 11: Just 3% of Vikes fans consider themselves sports bettors.
  • πŸ“† June 20: U.S. Bank Stadium is ranked one of the best NFL stadiums for betting the over.
  • πŸ“† June 9: The Vikings release starting RB Dalvin Cook.
  • πŸ“† May 16: The Vikings trade Za'Darius Smith to the Browns in exchange for 2024 and 2025 draft picks.
  • πŸ“† May 12: Weeks 6-8 are ranked as the Vikings' toughest stretch of the season.
  • πŸ“† April 2023: The Vikings draft USC WR Jordan Addison with the No. 23 overall pick in the draft and pick up WR Justin Jefferson's fifth-year option.
  • πŸ“† March 2023: The Vikings release WR Adam Thielen and LB Eric Kendricks, while re-signing safety Harrison Smith, RB Alexander Mattison and center Garrett Bradbury.

I will continue to update this page all season, so be sure to bookmark it and return to see all of the latest updates regarding the Minnesota Vikings.

Minnesota Vikings Schedule and Betting Lines

After starting the season 1-4, the Vikings went on a 5-game win streak to get to over .500. Below are the latest available game lines* for the Vikings in 2023:

πŸ“… Week 1❌ TB 20, MIN 17
πŸ“… Week 2❌ PHI 34, MIN 28
πŸ“… Week 3❌ LAC 28, MIN 24
πŸ“… Week 4βœ… MIN 21, CAR 13
πŸ“… Week 5❌ KC 27, MIN 20
πŸ“… Week 6βœ… MIN 19, CHI 13
πŸ“… Week 7βœ… SF 17, MIN 22
πŸ“… Week 8βœ… MIN 24, GB 10
πŸ“… Week 9βœ… ATL 28, GB 31
πŸ“… Week 10βœ… NO 19, MIN 27
πŸ“… Week 11❌ MIN 20, DEN 21
πŸ“… Week 12❌ CHI 12, MIN 10
πŸ“… Week 13: BYE🏈 N/A
πŸ“… Week 14 @ LV🏈 MIN -3, ML -155
πŸ“… Week 15 @ CIN🏈 MIN -1, ML -118
πŸ“… Week 16 vs. DET (Christmas Eve)🏈 TBD
πŸ“… Week 17 vs. GB (SNF on New Year's Eve)🏈 TBD
πŸ“… Week 18 @ DET🏈 TBD
βœ… Last Verified: December 7, 2023

*Note: Minnesota sportsbook promos could eventually increase payouts with an odds boost or profit boost on future Vikings games.

Key Contributors Toward Vikings Playoff Chances

Head coach Kevin O'Connell had a rough start to the season, but has turned it around recently in getting the Vikings back to .500.

QB Kirk Cousins was playing some of the best football of his career the past few gamesβ€”even with Justin Jefferson outβ€”before getting injured, ending his season. Jefferson, on the other hand, is expected to return to the lineup in Week 14.

Newly acquired QB Josh Dobbs had a remarkable start after being forced into action in Week 9, but his four interceptions against the Chicago Bears played a big role in Minnesota's Week 12 loss.

Jordan Addison (+5000 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year) has been one of the bright spots so far this season, looking every bit like the first-round pick the Vikings made him. T.J. Hockenson had also stepped up his game to shoulder the offensive load, including playing through a rib injury.

Vikings new starting RB Alexander Mattison has not had a great season so far, and may give some carrier to Ty Chandler in the coming weeks.

πŸ”₯ MORE: BetMGM Minnesota Bonus Codes

Where Can I Bet on the Vikings to Make the Playoffs?

You can bet on the Vikings to make the playoffs at most major Minnesota sportsbook apps, including BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel and DraftKings. Bettors must be at least 21 years old and within a state with legal sports betting.

Unfortunately, Minnesota sports betting is not yet legalized. Locals would need to travel to a nearby state like Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa or Illinois to place a legal bet on the Vikings to make the playoffs. 

Looking Ahead: Vikings Playoff Picture

While all hope looked lost with Kirk Cousins' season-ending injury, QB Josh Dobbs has brought new life back to the Vikings playoff chances. However, the Vikings playoff hopes have taken a hit after back-to-back losses in winnable games.

The margin for error has shrunk considerably in the NFC, and every game from here on out becomes pivotal in their quest for the postseason.

Are the Vikings Out of Playoff Picture?

No, the Vikings are not yet out of playoff contention.

Vikings Playoff Picture vs. NFC North

The Vikings currently have the the second-best chances to win the NFC North in 2023 at 9.1%, behind the Detroit Lions (91% chance).

However, the Lions have never won the NFC North title ... their last division title came in 1993 when they won the NFC Central. The Lions finished in second place in the NFC North last season, four games behind the Vikings.

The Green Bay Packers (7.7% chance) won the NFC North division title in three straight seasons from 2019-2021 but finished in third place in 2022.

The Chicago Bears (0.7%) have the worst chances to win the NFC North in 2023. The Bears have won the division just once over the last 12 seasons (in 2018) and finished with the NFL's worst record in 2022. Chicago has started the season 4-8.

πŸ”₯ MORE: FanDuel Minnesota Promo Codes

Vikings Playoff Picture vs. NFC Standings

The Vikings chances to win the conference (2%) are ninth in the NFC. If the season were to end today based solely on current odds, the Vikings would make the playoffs.

The 2023 Vikings over/under was set at 8.5 wins on DraftKings before the season. Their win total is back to a projected 8.5 wins after starting the season 6-6.

Where Do the Vikings Rank in the NFC Wild Card Playoff Picture?

The Vikings have a 46.5% chance of getting an NFC wild card seed, according to DraftKings.

Their wild card chances rank only behind the Cowboys (86.7%) and Packers (69.7%). The Vikings have the sixth-best playoff chances in the NFC.

Based on these metrics, oddsmakers are predicting that the Vikings will be an NFC wild-card team this season.

Can the Vikings Get the No. 1 Seed in NFC Playoff Picture?

Yes, there is still technically a chance the Vikings can finish as the No. 1 seed in the NFC in 2023. However, it would be an absolute miracle at this point.

Most major sportsbooks no longer lists odds for the Vikings to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Vikings Playoff Picture Outlook & Predictions

There are seven playoff berths available to each conference, and there are only a few NFC teams that are expected to be playoff locks in 2023. The easiest path for the Vikings to make the playoffs is to beat out the Lions, Packers, and Bears for the NFC North division title. However, the most likely path currently for the Vikings is via a wild card seed.

The Vikings offensive star power on paper looked to be enough to make a playoff push before the season. Even without Justin Jefferson in the lineup the past few games and Kirk Cousins' injury, Minnesota would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

Jordan Addison looks like another building block at wide receiver and is clearly a hit with Minnesota's 2023 first-round pick. T.J. Hockenson is a large, reliable tight end who has played well after the Vikings traded for him in the middle of the last season and signed him to an extension this season.

Who to Root for if You're a Minnesota Vikings Fan

Of course every season Vikings fans will be rooting against their NFC North divisional rivals: the Packers, Lions and Bears. The easiest way to make the playoffs is by winning your division.

However, oddmakers are predicting that the Lions will win the NFC North this season, which means the Vikings would have to fight for one of three Wild Card spots available in the NFC playoffs. In this case, the Vikings should be rooting against other teams that will also likely be fighting for one of those spots. At this point, those teams include the Falcons, Saints, Bucs, Packers and Seahawks.

πŸ”₯ MORE: Caesars Sportsbook Minnesota Promo Codes

Minnesota Vikings Odds FAQs


Ben has been in the sports betting space since 2010, overseeing digital content for ESPN and VSiN. He helped shape strategy for ESPN's sports betting podcasts and TV show Daily Wager, along with VSiN's show, podcast and YouTube strategy. He's unfortunately a die-hard fan of Minnesota sports teams.

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